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Exit Poll Discrepancy Analyses

Exit Poll Analyses by the National Election Data Archive


The Gun is Smoking: 2004 Ohio Precinct-level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount January 2006, Exit poll analysis by Ron Baiman and Kathy Dopp shows that the 2004 Ohio exit poll discrepancies are consistent with outcome-altering vote miscounts.


Vote Miscounts or Exit Poll Error? New Mathematical Function for Analyzing Exit Poll Discrepancy
January 2006, updated October 2006, Statistical methods can determine if exit poll data is more consistent with vote miscounts or exit poll error. Unfortunately, U.S. exit pollsters do not release the detailed data by precinct that is necessary to use these methods. They claim that releasing such data would compromise voter privacy, despite having released such data for Ohio 2004 without risking any voter privacy by combining the data for the smallest precincts.


Mathematical Proof that Election Sciences Institute's Test to Rule Out Vote Fraud Is Logically Incorrect
November 2005, The 2004 Ohio exit poll analysis of the Election Science Institute was mathematically invalid.

2004 Presidential Election – Compendium of Attempts to Dismiss “Vote Fraud” May 2006, updated July 2006, All attempts to dismiss the evidence of vote miscounts in the 2004 presidential election failed.

The 2004 Presidential Election: Exit Poll Error or Vote Miscount? September 8, 2005. The discrepancies between election results and exit poll results in the 2004 presidential race have not been explained and are consistent with significant vote count errors.

The exit pollsters had wrongly dismissed the exit poll discrepancies, claiming that they were caused by exit poll response bias.

Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies US Count Votes scientific paper on the 2004 election exit poll discrepancies was released in March 2005 and refutes the pollsters' claims.


Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 prepared by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool (NEP)
January 2005, It is officially confirmed (by the exit pollsters themselves) that on election night the final set of exit polls in the 2004 presidential election show John Kerry defeating George Bush by 3% of the popular vote and a clear majority of 316 electoral votes.


Study of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies - Response to Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 Report
January 2005, US Count Votes statisticians analyzed Edison/Mitofsky's own explanation of their exit poll discrepancies, and found serious flaws in their argument.

Exit polls have been used for years to detect corruption of official vote tallies - and were recently used to overturn an election in Ukraine.

Rebuttal to Mark Lindeman essay he called “Exit Polls, Vote Fraud, and ‘ESI’s: A Response to Kathy Dopp’s ‘Mathematical Proof”


Super Tuesday Primary Elections 2008, an analysis by Kathy Dopp, reminds us why we should not trust the accuracy of election results in states like Massachusetts.




Created on 04/21/2007 11:54 AM by admin
Updated on 11/19/2010 03:58 PM by admin
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